Climate and the Collapse of the Roman Empire | Part 2: Climate

A crop of trees in the left corner, a field of green moss, and a large volcano
Everything you see behind the icebergs in a lake is one giant glacier — Vatnajökull
Timelapse video I took of glaciers moving in the bay
A beached iceberg on a black-sand beach just before the waves roll in
A strong Azores high and weak Icelandic low drive storms to northern Europe. source
A stronger Icelandic low puts a kink in the jet stream, delivering less rain to northern Europe. source
The NAO for the past 150 years. Points are individual years, while the light blue line is the overall trend by Bayesian change point analysis (because science).
Olsen et. al (2012) reconstruct the past from fragments. source
The Olsen et al (2012) NAO reconstruction over the course of the Roman Republic/Empire.
The NAO reconstruction, with historical context. First — NAO. Second, Bayesian posterior probabilities for change points (e.g. when stuff really changed) , third, the records of droughts, fourth, the records of famine. The grey lines indicate historical migration events. source
Rome and its discontents. source
The shift to drought conditions when the NAO went form 1–2 to 0–1. Orange is a shift of -1 (more drought), green is a shift to +1 (less drought)
It is hard to say for certain, but there does seem to be a change after 200 A.D. to climate in Europe and North Africa. source

--

--

--

Μη κατατριψης το υπολειπομενον του βιου μερος εν ταις περι ετερων φαντασιαις... ορθον ουν ειναι χρη, ουχι ορθουμενον - Marcus Aurelius

Love podcasts or audiobooks? Learn on the go with our new app.

Recommended from Medium

LBA Board Loses Touch With Reality

Gävle: Making places for biodiversity awareness

Global Food Crisis: Are You Awake Yet?

When the Disaster Response Phase Really Ends

It’s A Sad And Beautiful World

ICT will be a Game Changer in the Animal Husbandry and Dairy Sector

Worth Your Salt

Fast vs Slow: Why Caring is Fashionable

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store
Lee Drake

Lee Drake

Μη κατατριψης το υπολειπομενον του βιου μερος εν ταις περι ετερων φαντασιαις... ορθον ουν ειναι χρη, ουχι ορθουμενον - Marcus Aurelius

More from Medium

Don’t Look Up & Climate Change

The Last Resort for Solving Climate Change?

From one planet, another.

The war against climate change