This is definitely a contrarian take - my very unscientific and vibe-based sense is that the split-ticket drop in 2020 made Democrats realize many of their otherwise eventual Midterm losses early, and that the floor is higher for them as a result going into 2022. It doesn’t make sense to see a 60 seat loss on top of the 13 seat loss they had in 2020 -but then again I’ve never felt less confident in any political predictions than I feel know.