We have good data on FIRMS that tracks the Russian artillery machine. I set up a bot to grab all IR detected across Ukraine each hour and sum the total wattage. This means we can measure fire intensity over time, rather than just look at red dots on a map. You can see the results for Donbas here: https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine#firms-summary


The amount of artillery expended during the spring and summer was insane - something like a Hiroshima’s worth of power every few days (keep in mind power = energy times intensity, so low energy IR to produce that wattage is frankly nuts). But it all comes to a full stop in early September, likely due to the Kharkiv offensive. And it hasn’t recovered.

Now, there are things that can cause IR single to dampen, cloud cover being the most significant. Also it is the case there was more to burn at the start of the war. But it is unlikely a) that there has been nothing but cloud cover since September and perfect conditions before, and b) that the association with the Kharkiv offensive is a coincidence.

I don’t know if the Kharkiv forced an immediate re-appraisal of Russian strategy, or if it did something to their ammo stocks that is under appreciated. I would love to hear more insight on it, but I’ve seen very little discussion of it.